Clinical management design
Development of a simulation model for the reorganization of the emergency and urgent network of Emilia-Romagna
Technical support for AgeNaS in the development of a simulation model that reproduces the functioning of the emergency-urgency network of Emilia-Romagna according to the reorganisation scenario initiated by the Region during 2023. In order to evaluate the expected activity volumes for the new CAUs and to determine their impact on other nodes of the network, the simulation model estimates, for each facility, the expected activity volumes and case-load, providing strategic information that can guide the Region in its healthcare programming activities.
Business Challenge
Management of inappropriate access in PS
Demand governance
Integration of new territorial nodes into the health network
Sustainability of the emergency-urgency network
Milestones
1. Statistical analysis of the emergency-urgency flow: validation of data quality, univariate, bivariate, and multivariate analysis.
2. Definition of the target case history for the CAU: identification of low-complexity patients, mapping of the services provided in the CAU, and verification of consistency with the selected case history.
3. Study of the accessibility of catchment areas to the PS and CAU network through a gravitational model inspired by Huff's theory: estimation of potential flows based on the attractiveness of the facilities and the propensity for mobility related to the municipal type.
4. Development of the agent-based/discrete-event simulation model to accurately reproduce the demand for access to emergency-urgency facilities, in time and space, and the characteristics of that demand.
5. Configuration of two simulation scenarios: AS-IS simulation of the current state of the network (before the activation of the CAU) and TO-BE simulation of the project state of the network (following the activation of the CAU).
Conclusions
Report documenting methodologies, analyses, and results of the simulation model, providing an operational tool to support network planning, evaluate dynamic what-if scenarios, and guide strategic decisions based on data.